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The motives and means of explicit state censorship have been well studied, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Self-censorship by media outlets, however, has not received nearly as much attention, mostly because it is difficult to systematically detect. We develop a novel approach to identify news media self-censorship by using social media as a sensor. We develop a hypothesis testing framework to identify and evaluate censored clusters of keywords and a near-linear-time algorithm (called GraphDPD) to identify the highest-scoring clusters as indicators of censorship. We evaluate the accuracy of our framework, versus other state-of-the-art algorithms, using both semi-synthetic and real-world data from Mexico and Venezuela during Year 2014. These tests demonstrate the capacity of our framework to identify self-censorship and provide an indicator of broader media freedom. The results of this study lay the foundation for detection, study, and policy-response to self-censorship. 

Abstract Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021–22 and 2022–23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021–22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022–23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2^ndmost accurate model measured by WIS in 2021–22 and the 5^thmost accurate in the 2022–23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change.